At the end of 2025, the Indonesian government expressed strong optimism about the nation’s economic outlook, projecting growth of 5.4 percent in 2026.

This confidence rests on the increasingly solid domestic fundamentals and the continuous efforts towards the national economic transformation agenda. Stable inflation, a sustained trade surplus, and resilient household consumption also reinforce this positive outlook.

Adding to the momentum, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) reached 121.2 in October 2025, while the manufacturing sector continued to expand, with the manufacturing PMI standing at 53.3 in November 2025.

The Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs has stated that investment is a crucial driver in sustaining economic growth in the coming year.

This is reflected in total investment realization, which reached IDR 1,434 trillion over the year—an increase of 13.9 percent year-on-year (YoY)—and created jobs for 1.95 million workers.

Strengthening Industrial Downstreaming

To achieve its 2026 economic targets, the government has outlined a series of steps, one of which is speeding up industrial downstreaming to boost value creation. This includes strengthening the electric vehicle ecosystem.

This push is well-founded. In the third quarter of 2025, investment realization jumped to IDR 434 trillion—up 58 percent year-on-year—driven largely by developments in the electric vehicle industry and its supporting ecosystem.

Adding to this, exports of nickel and nickel-based products also rose from US$3.3 billion to US$33.9 billion—a tenfold increase over recent years that proves how downstreaming policies can deliver substantial added value to the national economy.

Economists share the optimistic economic outlook. Most believe that Indonesia’s economic resilience remains strong because domestic consumption continues to be the backbone of growth.

As a result, the risk of recession is considered relatively low. Experts also believe that close coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is the key to sustaining economic momentum.

Moreover, the potential for a reduction in the BI Rate could open the door to new investment inflows. That said, the government must remain vigilant against global risks, including commodity price volatility, US trade tariff policies, and weakening global demand.

Digitalization and the green economy create even more room for expansion, but maintaining consumption levels and accelerating strategic investment will remain critical.

Upstream and Downstream Balance

Economic growth in 2026 is expected to exceed 5 percent. However, economists caution that the quality of growth must remain the top priority. After all, downstreaming is only the first phase of the nation’s long-term industrial development strategy.

After successfully increasing value through commodity-based downstream processing, it needs to move to the next phase: building stronger industrial capacity across both upstream and downstream sectors.

While the mining sector is often considered low-hanging fruit for quickly generating economic returns, relying too much on it hardly does any good in building a solid economic foundation.

For this reason, diversifying investment is a crucial step toward sustainable economic transformation. Balancing the development of upstream and downstream industries will help create a resilient economy that is not dependent on mining commodities alone.

These factors help explain why both the Indonesian government and economists are confident that the nation’s economic growth could accelerate in 2026. This optimism is also expected to have a positive impact on the domestic business climate, including the transportation and logisticssector.

With the national economy projected to spike, businesses across sectors must be ready to respond with well-prepared strategic business plans.

As a major player in transportation and logistics in the country, PT Serasi Autoraya (SERA) welcomes the coming challenges by providing comprehensive solutions for vehicle rental through TRAC, auction through IBID, and logistics through SELOG.

Dive deeper into SERA by visiting www.sera.astra.co.id or following us on Instagram @serasiautoraya and LinkedIn Serasi Autoraya for career tips and latest job opportunities.